Barkatu, Hartzaren Merkatu hau ziurrenik bi heren baino ez dago

Stocks rallied sharply Monday and Tuesday and a number of Real Money subscribers emailed me asking whether it was time to move back into stocks.

The question is understandable as I have been recommending a defensive stance since back in December 2021.

I penned a longer piece on Monday outlining many of the tools that technical analysts look for in trying to time a market bottom. Despite a two-day burst of buying perhaps pinned on hopes of a shift (i.e. pivot) by the Fed, I am not moved to declare that the bear market is over.

If traders felt that Monday was the start of something bullish and durable, I doubt that the market would trade off in the last 90 minutes of trading on Monday. A real low would have seen prices close on the high of the day.

Prices were oversold and prone to a rebound. In this daily Japanese candlestick chart of the S&P 500, below, we can see that the candles do not show us a bottom-reversal pattern. Trading volume did not surge strongly and the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is still pointed down.



Beheko estrategia: I could be dead wrong, but I anticipate a better buying opportunity later in the fourth quarter.


Jaso posta elektroniko bidezko alerta bat Real Money-erako artikulu bat idazten dudan bakoitzean. Egin klik artikulu honen nire jarraibidearen ondoan dagoen "+ Jarraitu" botoian.